In April 2025, President Donald Trump proposed significant tariff increases, suggesting a 10% tax on a majority of imports, in addition to elevated rates for specific countries.
This policy change could notably affect African economies, especially those that have profited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
The proposed tariffs threaten approximately $8 billion in African exports to the United States, putting decades of established trade relationships at risk.
A recent report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reveals that Trump’s new tariff approach has serious consequences for emerging and vulnerable economies, including Least Developed Countries, regarding international trade and access to the U.S. market.
The report emphasises that “Many African nations have benefited from preferential market access through initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), while smaller economies involved in U.S. free trade agreements contribute minimally to the U.S. trade deficit.”
It further states, “Imposing tariffs on their exports would not increase U.S. revenue but rather disproportionately impact these economically vulnerable countries.”
Despite having access to the U.S. market, numerous African nations primarily export a limited array of products.
This lack of diversity restricts their ability to fully utilize trade preferences and undermines their economic stability.
Even with tariff exemptions, African exporters frequently face logistical difficulties, stringent quality regulations, and complex compliance requirements, which hinder their competitiveness in the U.S. market.
According to the UNCTAD report, “The impact on the U.S. trade deficit from smaller and Least Developed Countries among the 57 trading partners is minimal.”
It continues, “For instance, 28 of these partners each account for less than 0.1% of the overall U.S. deficit. Nonetheless, the implementation of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on these nations would severely affect their export potential to the U.S. market.”
Even with market access to the U.S., many African countries continue to rely on a narrow range of commodities for exports.
With this background, here are the ten African countries that present the greatest opportunity for the U.S. to increase revenue through reciprocal tariffs:
Top 10 African Nations the U.S. Could Gain Most From Through Increased Tariffs
Rank | Country | Potential Customs Duties | As a Percentage of U.S. Total Customs Duties in 2024
1 | Tunisia | $313 million | 0.38%
2 | Madagascar | $290 million | 0.35%
3 | Côte d’Ivoire | $174 million | 0.21%
4 | Botswana | $154 million | 0.19%
5 | Algeria | $126 million | 0.15%
6 | Lesotho | $119 million | 0.14%
7 | Mauritius | $93 million | 0.11%
8 | Nigeria | $58 million | 0.07%
9 | Namibia | $40 million | 0.05%
10 | Angola | $38 million | 0.05%
