India-Pakistan Relations Deteriorate: A violent incident in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir has heightened tensions between the nuclear-capable neighbours, India and Pakistan.
The attack, which occurred on April 22, resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals and has prompted retaliatory measures from both nations. Analysts warn that should the situation escalate and global powers take sides, it could lead to a broader conflict.
The incident took place in the Baisaran Valley, a well-known tourist destination near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, primarily affecting male tourists.
An armed group based in Pakistan, known as The Resistance Front (TRF), initially took responsibility for the assault.
This group is associated with Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN.
Indian officials reported that the assailants utilised M4 rifles manufactured for the US-NATO and infiltrated the area via mountain trails and dense pine forests.
However, four days later, TRF retracted its claim of responsibility.
In its original statement, TRF indicated that the assault was aimed at protesting Indian policies that facilitate the settlement of citizens from other regions in Kashmir.
The region has long been contested, with both India and Pakistan asserting claims over it. India regards Kashmir as an integral part of its territory, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has referred to it as Pakistan’s “jugular vein.”
India has accused Pakistan of aiding militant organisations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and has directly attributed the Pahalgam attack to it.
Following the attack, India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement governing the sharing of the Indus River system. Additionally, it initiated the release of water from the Uri Dam, which could adversely affect agriculture in Pakistan.
Subsequent actions were swiftly taken. India announced the closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing, the primary land route connecting both nations.
Pakistani nationals currently in India were instructed to return by May 1. Special visas issued under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) were revoked, with holders given 48 hours to depart.
India also mandated the expulsion of Pakistani military, naval, and air advisers within a week and is recalling its military personnel from Islamabad. Both countries have agreed to reduce their embassy staff from 55 to 30 by May 1.
Prime Minister Modi addressed the public, expressing that “every Indian’s blood was on the boil.” Observers suggest that domestic political pressures are compelling both governments to adopt more hardline positions.
In retaliation, Pakistan announced its own set of countermeasures.
It indicated a potential suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement, a peace accord established after the 1971 conflict that resulted in Bangladesh’s independence.
Pakistan also expelled Indian military attachés and ordered Indian citizens holding special visas to leave.
Islamabad stated it would close its part of the Wagah border and halt all trade with India. Furthermore, it declared a stoppage of Indian goods transiting through its territory to third countries, including Afghanistan. Reports by Aljazeera indicate that Indian aircraft have been barred from utilizing Pakistani airspace, potentially impacting flight routes.
The situation is generating international unease, particularly within the Global South. Recently, India’s Navy conducted a test launch of the INS Surat, a surface-to-air missile with a range of 70 km, in the Arabian Sea. If global powers begin to take sides—such as the U.S. supporting India and China backing Pakistan—the situation could escalate into a significantly larger and more perilous conflict.
Pakistan has claimed support from three nations: China, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. China, notably, has committed to assisting Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security. Reports also indicate that both China and Turkey have supplied arms to Islamabad. Meanwhile, Iran and Saudi Arabia have urged both nations to de-escalate tensions and avert war.
The upcoming days may prove critical in determining whether the crisis can be managed or if it is leading towards a far more serious confrontation.
