Brazilians vote Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that will decide whether President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva keeps power or the country turns back toward the right-wing movement of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Polls show Lula, 80, and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son, effectively tied. A Datafolha survey released Thursday put Lula at 42% in the first round and Bolsonaro at 38%. In a simulated runoff, Lula led 48% to 45%, inside the poll’s margin of error. Other surveys have shown the two candidates even closer.
If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes Sunday, the top two finishers advance to a runoff Oct. 25. Thirteen candidates are on the ballot. A first-round majority is widely seen as unlikely.
A fourth term for Lula, of the Workers’ Party, would extend the tenure of a leader who has made social spending and Brazilian sovereignty the center of his campaign. He has promised a shorter workweek, lower income taxes for low earners and changes to policing. Consumer prices have risen a cumulative 17.9% during his current term through August, the smallest increase over a presidential term since the real was introduced, according to official figures. His early lead in this race has narrowed sharply.
Bolsonaro, a senator, is running as the political heir to his father, who is under house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup following his loss to Lula in 2022. The younger Bolsonaro has emphasized privatization, spending cuts and closer ties with Washington. A win would fit a broader conservative shift in Latin America, where Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Peru have installed right-leaning leaders in the past year.
The race is being watched well beyond Brazil. China is the country’s largest trading partner, and Bolsonaro’s alignment with President Donald Trump could strain that relationship. Lula has had a difficult relationship with the Trump administration, which imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods in July 2025 after criticizing the case against Jair Bolsonaro. Analysts also point to Brazil’s rare earth reserves, second only to China’s, as a point of interest for Washington.
Public finances are the other central issue. Government debt stood at 82.9% of gross domestic product in August, and the budget deficit was 9.48% of GDP. Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield was trading near 14%. Inflation has remained above 4%, and growth forecasts for this year have been cut below 2%. As a net oil exporter, Brazil has gained from higher oil prices, but those same prices have complicated efforts to contain inflation.
