5 Alarming Signs the GNU Could Collapse: South Africa’s fragile Government of National Unity (GNU) is facing its most turbulent test yet. T
he Democratic Alliance (DA) decision to reject the national budget over a 0.5% Value-Added Tax (VAT) hike has ignited fierce political backlash, legal action, and threats of expulsion. As tensions soar, 5 alarming signs point to an imminent GNU collapse.
GNU is Reaching a Breaking Point
The DA’s rejection of the 2025/26 national budget on April 2, 2025, has triggered instability within the GNU—a coalition formed to stabilize governance after no single party won a majority in the 2024 elections. The budget, narrowly passed with 194 votes in favor and 182 against, included a 0.5% VAT increase meant to address a R28 billion shortfall.
However, the DA opposed the move, calling it harmful to poor and middle-income South Africans. They argue the VAT hike will increase inflationary pressure, worsen the cost-of-living crisis, and stall economic growth.
1. DA’s Budget Rejection Sparks Coalition Turmoil
The first of the 5 alarming signs is the DA’s outright refusal to back the GNU’s fiscal roadmap. This move violates the coalition’s foundational spirit, which was based on mutual compromise and joint responsibility.
The DA argued that raising VAT from 15% to 15.5% would place undue pressure on South Africans already dealing with 5.2% inflation, and instead proposed spending cuts and anti-corruption measures to recover funds.
2. ActionSA Backs Budget, Undermining DA’s Stance
The second of the 5 alarming signs is the ANC’s pivot to ActionSA to secure budget approval. Although not formally part of the GNU, ActionSA offered its support in exchange for a 30-day Treasury deadline to submit alternative revenue strategies before the VAT hike is implemented.
This has deepened mistrust between GNU partners, with the DA accusing ActionSA of undermining coalition integrity and aiding the ANC in what they call “reckless financial management.”
3. Mbalula’s Explosive Remarks Add Fuel to the Fire
The third of the 5 alarming signs is the provocative rhetoric from ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula, who on April 4 in Diepsloot warned the DA about the consequences of their defiance.
“When you’ve decided that you’re not coming to my wedding, you’re no longer my friend,” Mbalula said, implying the DA’s actions are tantamount to self-expulsion from the GNU.
He added that the ANC isn’t pushing anyone out, but partners choosing to ignore the coalition’s decisions may find themselves on the outside.
4. Legal Battle Escalates the Power Struggle
The fourth of the 5 alarming signs is the DA’s court challenge. On April 3, the party filed an urgent application in the Western Cape High Court to block the VAT hike, alleging procedural irregularities and inadequate public consultation.
DA leader John Steenhuisen, who also serves as GNU Minister of Agriculture, said:
“This VAT hike budget will make life more expensive for everyone, and the DA will go to court to fight for the interests of all South Africans.”
The legal action places the judiciary at the center of a political standoff, and its outcome could either validate or destabilize the GNU’s fiscal framework.
5. Internal GNU Attacks Signal Deep Division
The fifth of the 5 alarming signs is the growing hostility among GNU members themselves. PA leader Gayton McKenzie, who supported the budget alongside the ANC, called on Steenhuisen to resign, stating:
“Pls also file your resignation papers at same time,”
This bold attack on a fellow Cabinet member signals deepening rivalries, as smaller parties appear to be positioning themselves to fill a potential power vacuum if the DA exits the GNU.
What’s at Stake for the Government of National Unity?
Formed in 2024 out of necessity, the GNU includes the ANC, DA, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Patriotic Alliance (PA), and others. Its main mission was to address South Africa’s 32.9% unemployment rate, and economic stagnation (just 0.6% growth in 2024).
Now, internal discord, legal showdowns, and public spats threaten to undo this historic political alignment. The DA’s budget rejection may be the spark that lights a broader constitutional crisis or forces a GNU reshuffle.
Zille: “We’re Not in It for the Perks”
DA Federal Chairperson Helen Zille defended the party’s stance, insisting that the DA is in the GNU to stimulate growth, not to enjoy privileges:
“We are not in the GNU for blue lights or cars, or ministerial homes, or status… We are here to grow the economy.”
Zille confirmed that internal consultations are ongoing, and no final decision has been made about exiting the GNU. However, her tone made it clear that the party’s participation is no longer guaranteed.
