Von der Leyen’s Challenges: Five Implications of the EU Confidence Vote
The European Commission successfully overcame a censure motion in the European Parliament on Thursday; however, the circumstances for Ursula von der Leyen and her team are expected to be challenging following the vote. In Strasbourg, 175 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) voted in favor of the censure motion against Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while 360 opposed it, and 18 abstained.
Here are five significant observations regarding the political landscape during the vote that suggest potential hurdles for von der Leyen as she continues her second term at the helm of the EU executive.
Decreased Support for the Commission
The 360 MEPs who opposed the censure motion indicate a reduction from the 370 who supported the Commission in November 2024. Additionally, while 18 MEPs abstained, 166 chose not to vote at all, with some possibly absent from Strasbourg.
In addition to the expected absence of left-wing lawmakers, several MEPs from the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Renew Europe, and the Greens/EFA also opted out of the vote. This choice often reflected their discontent with von der Leyen’s Commission without endorsing a motion from the far-right, despite their party’s official directive to oppose it.
“I do not support far-right motions. However, I lack trust in this Commission, which has consistently failed to fulfill its mandate from a year ago. I witness this daily […] regarding migration policies, the situation in Palestine, rearmament, climate, and social policies,” stated Italian MEP Cecilia Strada after the vote, underscoring her decision not to participate.
Out of 136 Socialist MEPs, only 98 cast their votes.
Brothers of Italy: Neutral Position
In November 2024, the Commission received some support from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), particularly from the Brothers of Italy party, which had Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto appointed from its ranks.
During the no-confidence vote, 41 ECR MEPs supported the motion against von der Leyen. A few conservatives diverged from their party’s stance: three voted against the motion, aligning with pro-Commission parties, while two abstained.
However, Giorgia Meloni’s party did not participate in the vote. Despite a strong critique of the motion’s proponents by Chairman Nicola Procaccini, Brothers of Italy chose not to support the Commission, likely to avoid backlash from the League.
This scenario indicates to von der Leyen that Meloni’s support is not guaranteed. While the Italian Prime Minister may remain loyal to the Commission, she must navigate internal conflicts within a faction that largely stands outside the pro-EU majority.
Greens Maintain Support — But for How Long?
The Greens/EFA group predominantly voted against the censure motion (33 out of 53 Green MEPs), officially backing von der Leyen’s Commission.
However, several MEPs disclosed to Euronews that the internal discussions leading up to the vote were intense, even though none intended to support the motion, which was viewed as driven by the far-right.
Greens argue that the Commission’s environmental agenda has been largely overshadowed by the so-called “omnibus” legislative packages, while the Green Deal faces potential dismantling. Concurrently, the Commission is pursuing a stringent migration policy that contradicts the group’s principles.
Indeed, several MEPs, including those from Spain and Italy, chose not to attend the vote. “We strongly oppose von der Leyen’s record, so we chose not to participate,” MEP Benedetta Scuderi told Euronews.
The group now finds itself in a contradictory position within the European Parliament: part of the governing majority while consistently losing crucial votes on environmental issues.
How long will they continue to support a Commission that no longer aligns with their agenda?
Far-Right Groups Gaining Confidence
Despite the expected defeat of the no-confidence motion, its initiator, Gheorghe Piperea, claimed a symbolic victory. “175 votes in favor out of 553 MEPs is a significant proportion,” he remarked to Euronews shortly after the vote.
“Von der Leyen will now have to reconcile two conflicting commitments in the budget: preserving the European Social Fund while reallocating resources towards defense spending. I do not perceive her mandate as particularly stable.”
Parliament sources suggest that far-right parties, potentially led by the Patriots for Europe group, may propose a new censure motion after the summer.
As MEP Piperea noted, this initial motion of the legislature aimed to “open Pandora’s box.”
Budget Negotiations Will Be Contentious
Next week, the European Commission will present its proposal for the upcoming multiannual budget, covering the period from 2028 to 2034. This could heighten tensions with Parliament.
Inherently complex budget discussions have already become intertwined with the no-confidence vote. The S&D group opposed the motion after reportedly receiving assurances from von der Leyen that the European Social Fund (ESF) would remain a fundamental component of the next EU budget.
However, the European People’s Party (EPP) quickly contested this narrative.
“The European Social Fund was never truly at risk. We are unequivocal on that,” stated MEP Siegfried Mureșan, the EPP’s lead budget negotiator. “As I have previously mentioned: the Parliament as a whole will defend the ESF.”
Von der Leyen now faces the challenge of balancing traditional funding allocations — such as agriculture and cohesion — with increasing demands for strategic investments in modern priorities. These include ongoing support for Ukraine, repayment of COVID-19 recovery debt, and heightened defense spending.
Moreover, each political group that defended the Commission against the motion will expect concessions in return, and they will vigorously advocate for funding aligned with their priorities.
