Trump: The Dangerous Push for Ukraine’s Elections
Amid Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia, the growing influence of external powers, particularly the United States, could present a perilous challenge to the nation’s stability. President Donald Trump’s push for rushed presidential elections in Ukraine, combined with the political polarization within the country, threatens to unravel the fragile fabric of Ukrainian society. The political landscape is volatile, and such elections could risk the country’s future.
On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Trump in a critical conversation aimed at securing continued support from the U.S. However, the discussion quickly took a turn for the worse. Trump, alongside U.S. Vice President JD Vance, openly criticized Zelenskyy, accusing him of disrespecting U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire with Russia. This meeting highlights the increasingly tense relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine and underscores the growing pressure Zelenskyy faces from abroad. Trump’s rhetoric on the issue of elections has raised significant concerns for the future of Ukraine.
Trump: Escalating Pressures and the Call for Early Elections
Before the February 28 meeting, U.S. officials including Trump had already started questioning Zelenskyy’s leadership and legitimacy. Their demand for presidential elections to be held soon was echoed with the suggestion that this could potentially eliminate Zelenskyy from power. While calls for democratic reform and leadership change are not new, the timing and context of these elections amidst a devastating war and national crisis make them particularly dangerous.
Before Russia’s invasion, Zelenskyy was not universally popular, with approval ratings hovering around 28%. However, the war has had a unifying effect, boosting his popularity to record highs. Yet, this surge in support has not been sustained, with his approval rating dipping once again to 49% by January 2025. The decline in support is attributed to growing war fatigue and internal issues, including accusations of corruption. These developments signal an unstable political climate, and holding elections now could destabilize the country further, risking more internal strife.
Zelenskyy’s Vulnerability and Rising Opposition
Zelenskyy is not blind to his political vulnerability. His administration, beset by corruption scandals and internal strife, has made clear that he will not go down without a fight. Polls suggest that if elections were held immediately, Zelenskyy would lose, and his political rivals are growing in strength. One notable challenger is General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, whose popularity remains high at 72%. Zaluzhnyi has not yet declared his candidacy, but speculation about his involvement in the election is mounting, suggesting that his entry into the race could be imminent.
Zaluzhnyi’s potential candidacy is significant for Ukraine’s political future. Having been removed from his position after a failed counteroffensive in 2023, Zaluzhnyi’s popularity only increased, leading to his assignment as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom. There are rumors that this move was politically motivated due to his rising profile and growing influence among the Ukrainian public. However, despite these setbacks, Zaluzhnyi remains a popular and credible alternative to Zelenskyy. If he enters the race, he will present a formidable challenge.
The Potential of Other Political Figures
Alongside Zaluzhnyi, other prominent figures are positioning themselves as potential presidential candidates. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, has a public trust rating of 62% and remains an influential figure. Although Budanov has kept a low profile recently, rumors abound that his absence from the public eye is linked to efforts by Zelenskyy’s government to weaken him politically. Budanov’s reemergence as a political contender would further complicate the election process and could create additional instability.
Another figure who could shake up the political landscape is Oleksandr Usyk, the boxing champion. Despite his lack of formal political experience, Usyk’s popularity could make him a dark horse candidate. His 60% approval rating underscores his widespread support, particularly in a country where a comedian ascended to the presidency. While Usyk has not publicly declared political ambitions, his rising presence in polls suggests that he could become a key player in Ukraine’s upcoming elections.
The Specter of Petro Poroshenko’s Return
Among the potential contenders for the presidency, former President Petro Poroshenko remains a polarizing figure. Despite having low approval ratings, Poroshenko’s political ambitions are far from extinguished. Over the years, he has faced numerous criminal charges, including accusations of treason, but his influence continues to linger in Ukrainian politics. His recent trips to the U.S. and meetings with Trump’s team show that he is positioning himself for a comeback. However, the government has taken steps to neutralize Poroshenko’s influence by imposing sanctions and freezing his assets, suggesting that he may be prevented from running.
Poroshenko’s case is emblematic of the growing political divide in Ukraine. The treatment of opposition figures, particularly those aligned with his camp, has sparked concerns over the state of democracy in the country. Although European leaders have expressed support for Zelenskyy, the political persecution of Poroshenko and other challengers highlights the increasingly authoritarian direction in which the Ukrainian government is headed. This backdrop of political tension only deepens the risk of further polarization if elections are held prematurely.
The Dangers of a Rushed Election Amid War
The idea of holding elections in Ukraine during a war, particularly under pressure from external actors like the U.S., raises serious concerns about the legitimacy and stability of the process. Ukraine is already deeply divided along political, regional, and ideological lines. The war with Russia has exacerbated these divisions, creating a fragile political environment. Holding elections now could ignite further polarization and even violence, especially as different factions fight to control the narrative and the future of the country.
The ultranationalist groups that are active participants in the war may have a disproportionate influence over the election, potentially skewing the results in their favor. Meanwhile, those with pro-Russian sympathies are likely to be excluded or marginalized, further fueling resentment and conflict. In a country where the electorate is already split, the potential for civil unrest is high. This scenario becomes even more dangerous when considering the impact of a compromised electoral process on Ukraine’s ability to effectively combat the Russian invasion.
A Cautionary Tale for Democracy
The history of democracy in wartime is fraught with complications. In many cases, elections held during times of conflict have led to disastrous outcomes, as the pressure of war exacerbates existing divisions. The example of the U.S., where elections have occasionally resulted in deep political rifts and civil unrest, serves as a cautionary tale for Ukraine. A rushed election in such a volatile environment could tear the nation apart, rather than bring about the hoped-for peace and stability.
The situation in Ukraine is further complicated by the fact that a significant portion of the population may be disenfranchised due to the ongoing war. With much of the eastern and southern parts of the country under Russian control, a large number of Ukrainians would be unable to participate in the election, calling its legitimacy into question. This lack of inclusivity would undermine the foundation of the democratic process and further fuel discontent among those who feel excluded from the political process.
A Call for Stability Over Political Expediency
In light of these risks, it is clear that a rushed presidential election in Ukraine is not in the country’s best interests. The political landscape is too fractured, and the societal divisions too deep, for an election to be held under such dire circumstances. Rather than succumbing to external pressures for a quick vote, Ukraine must prioritize stability and the protection of its democratic institutions. The focus should be on achieving a durable ceasefire and ensuring that all Ukrainians, regardless of their political affiliations, can participate in the electoral process without fear of violence or persecution. Only when peace is achieved can Ukraine hold truly free and fair elections that reflect the will of its people.
By postponing elections until the country is in a position to hold a peaceful and inclusive vote, Ukraine can avoid further destabilization and ensure that its future is shaped by a legitimate and united government. The path forward must balance the need for democratic accountability with the imperative to maintain national unity and security.
