South Sudan’s Peace Deal in Danger: Rising Tensions Threaten Stability
South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is facing a perilous moment in its troubled history. The 2018 peace deal that brought an end to years of devastating conflict between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar is now at risk due to escalating tensions between the two leaders. The conflict that erupted into a full-scale civil war in 2013 and devastated the country left more than 400,000 dead and millions displaced.
While peace returned in 2018 with the signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), new unrest is threatening to unravel these hard-won gains. This article will explore the renewed hostilities, the historical context of the South Sudan conflict, and the uncertain future of the peace agreement.
The History of South Sudan’s Conflict
South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, making it Africa’s newest nation. However, independence soon led to internal strife. The ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) began to fragment into rival factions, with significant political tensions surfacing along ethnic lines. The Dinka ethnic group, led by President Salva Kiir, has dominated the political landscape, creating resentment among other groups, especially the Nuer, led by Vice President Riek Machar.
These deepening divides led to full-scale war in 2013 when Kiir dismissed Machar and several government ministers. What followed was a brutal civil war between the South Sudanese army, loyal to Kiir, and Machar’s SPLM-in-Opposition (SPLM/IO). The conflict was exacerbated by ethnic tensions and external factors, including interference from neighboring countries. The war caused widespread displacement and humanitarian suffering. By 2018, more than a million people had been forced from their homes, and countless lives had been lost.
In a bid to end the violence, the parties to the conflict signed the 2018 peace agreement, which aimed to end the war and address the root causes of the conflict. However, the implementation of the peace deal has been slow and incomplete. Key provisions, including the formation of a unified national army, the drafting of a new constitution, and preparations for elections, have not been fully realized. Tensions between the government and opposition forces have simmered, and violence has continued sporadically across the country.
The Fragility of the 2018 Peace Deal
Despite the signing of the peace deal, South Sudan has not yet stabilized. The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was supposed to bring peace by uniting the country’s warring factions under a shared government. However, the country’s implementation of the deal has been marred by disagreements, delays, and local militias continuing to wreak havoc.
The peace deal outlined several steps, including the unification of the national army, the creation of a transitional government, and the preparation for democratic elections. These tasks were supposed to be completed over a period of several years. However, many of these commitments remain unfulfilled. The lack of progress has contributed to a sense of distrust between the rival factions, especially between President Kiir and Vice President Machar.
The violence in Upper Nile State is the latest sign of the peace process’s fragility. In February 2025, fighting erupted between government forces and an armed youth militia in Nasir County. The violence appears to have been sparked by rumors of a forced disarmament plan, which caused alarm among local groups. The situation escalated quickly, and government forces clashed with the armed group, leading to civilian casualties and significant damage.
The government’s response to the unrest has been aggressive, with multiple high-profile arrests, including key allies of Machar. These actions have further strained the fragile peace, leading to accusations that President Kiir is undermining the terms of the 2018 peace agreement. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has called for calm, but the conflict remains unresolved.
Tensions Between Kiir and Machar
The renewed fighting in Upper Nile State has reignited tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. While the two men signed the peace agreement in 2018, their relationship remains deeply strained. The 2013 dismissal of Machar as vice president and the subsequent outbreak of civil war left lasting scars on both leaders and their respective supporters.
Since the peace deal was signed, Kiir and Machar have had difficulty working together, with periodic flare-ups of violence and mutual distrust. In recent weeks, these tensions have boiled over, with the government targeting Machar’s supporters and arresting key figures aligned with the vice president. Among those arrested were General Gabriel Duop Lam, the deputy army chief, and several members of Machar’s inner circle.
This political crackdown has been widely criticized by Machar’s SPLM/IO party, which accused the government of violating the peace agreement. In a statement, Pal Mai Deng, a spokesman for the SPLM/IO, warned that Kiir’s actions could jeopardize the entire peace process. “This act puts the entire agreement at risk,” Deng said, stressing that the situation required immediate attention to prevent further escalation.
The growing animosity between the two leaders is a significant concern for South Sudan’s future. If Kiir and Machar cannot find common ground, the fragile peace will likely collapse, plunging the country back into war. The international community is watching closely, but it remains uncertain whether outside pressure can lead to meaningful dialogue between the warring factions.
The Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Response
South Sudan is grappling with one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Years of conflict, coupled with the impact of climate change, have pushed millions of South Sudanese to the brink of starvation. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), over 7.6 million people in South Sudan are facing food shortages, and one in every four children is severely malnourished.
The violence in Upper Nile State only adds to the suffering, as it disrupts vital aid deliveries and displaces even more people. The humanitarian crisis in South Sudan is compounded by a lack of infrastructure, limited access to health services, and a deepening economic crisis. The country’s poverty is exacerbated by years of civil war, making it one of the poorest nations in Africa despite its vast oil reserves.
The international community has responded to the crisis with aid, but the situation remains dire. The United Nations and humanitarian organizations such as the International Rescue Committee (IRC) have been working tirelessly to provide food, medical care, and shelter to those affected by the conflict. However, the escalating violence makes it increasingly difficult for aid agencies to operate effectively.
The region has also been involved in efforts to mediate peace in South Sudan. Kenyan President William Ruto, who is leading the Tumaini peace process, has called for dialogue between Kiir and Machar to prevent further violence. Similarly, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has expressed concern over the violence in Upper Nile State, calling on all parties to cease hostilities and respect the terms of the peace agreement.
Despite these efforts, the peace process remains fragile. The ongoing violence and political infighting make it difficult to move forward with the reforms outlined in the 2018 peace deal. With elections delayed and key tasks left incomplete, South Sudan’s path to stability remains uncertain.
The International Community’s Role
The international community has played a significant role in South Sudan’s peace process, but it is unclear whether external pressure will be enough to prevent the collapse of the peace agreement. Organizations such as the United Nations, the African Union, and IGAD have been working to mediate the conflict and provide humanitarian assistance to those in need. However, their efforts have often been undermined by the intransigence of South Sudan’s political leaders.
The United States, Canada, France, Germany, and other Western nations have condemned the recent violence in Upper Nile State, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the protection of civilians. These nations have also expressed concern over the arrests of senior political figures, warning that such actions threaten the stability of the peace process.
However, political analysts argue that the international community’s ability to influence the outcome in South Sudan is limited. The country’s leaders remain deeply entrenched in their positions, and there is little incentive for them to compromise. As a result, the risk of renewed conflict remains high, and the peace process could be at risk of unraveling entirely.
Is the Peace Deal Doomed?
The future of the 2018 peace agreement is uncertain. While the international community continues to push for dialogue and restraint, the situation on the ground is deteriorating. The violence in Upper Nile State is just one example of the growing instability in South Sudan, and it highlights the deep political divisions between the country’s leaders.
The failure to implement key provisions of the peace deal, such as the unification of the army and the creation of a transitional government, suggests that the peace process is faltering. Without genuine political will from both Kiir and Machar, the country will continue to face uncertainty and violence.
Ultimately, the risk of renewed conflict remains high. The situation in South Sudan is fragile, and unless both sides demonstrate a commitment to peace, the country may once again descend into full-scale war. The international community must continue to support efforts to find a peaceful resolution, but the responsibility for peace lies with South Sudan’s leaders.
South Sudan’s future remains precarious, and the world will be watching closely to see whether the 2018 peace deal can survive this latest round of tensions.
