SADC Must Act Now to Prevent Mozambique from Becoming a Failed State
Mozambique is facing an escalating crisis. The recent presidential election has triggered widespread unrest, and the opposition continues to reject the results. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) must intervene before the situation worsens.
On January 9, opposition leader Venancio Mondlane returned from self-imposed exile. As he arrived at Maputo International Airport, he knelt with a Bible in hand, claiming to be the “president-elect of the Mozambican people.” His return sparked mass protests and violent clashes with security forces.
The unrest stems from the controversial October 9 election, which saw Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo Party declared the winner with over 70% of the vote. Mondlane, supported by the Podemos party, secured only 20%. However, international observers, including the European Union Electoral Observer Mission, reported irregularities and vote manipulation.
The opposition demanded a rerun, accusing the government of a “silent genocide” targeting its members. In response, the authorities launched a brutal crackdown. More than 300 people, including children, have died in the violence. Prominent figures such as Elvino Dias, a legal representative of Mondlane, and Podemos official Paulo Guambe were assassinated.
A Nation in Chaos
The crisis has severely impacted Mozambique’s economy. Protests have disrupted trade, causing daily losses of 10 million rand ($562,822) for South Africa’s mining sector. The repeated closure of the Lebombo border has further strained regional commerce.
Lawlessness is spreading. A Christmas Day prison riot in Maputo led to the escape of 1,500 inmates, raising concerns over security. On December 23, Mozambique’s Constitutional Council upheld Chapo’s victory, intensifying public outrage.
Frustrated by domestic failures, Mozambican civil society groups appealed directly to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. They urged him to involve the African Union and the International Criminal Court, bypassing SADC, which they distrust due to its history of ignoring electoral fraud.
SADC’s Failure to Act
Despite mounting evidence of electoral malpractice, SADC’s observer mission endorsed the election as “orderly and peaceful.” This stance damaged its credibility and failed to reassure Mozambicans seeking justice.
SADC has long ignored democratic backsliding in the region. It failed to address electoral fraud in Zimbabwe, eSwatini, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Mozambique itself has suffered from SADC’s inaction before, with the 2019 elections marred by similar irregularities.
SADC leaders finally responded on January 5, mandating a panel to engage with Mozambique’s government and opposition. However, this move came too late, reinforcing perceptions that SADC acts only to protect ruling parties rather than uphold democratic principles.
The Consequences of Inaction
Mozambique is already suffering from instability. The country endured a brutal civil war from 1977 to 1992 and has faced ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado since 2017. Over 4,000 people have died, and nearly one million have been displaced.
The economy is crumbling. Corruption is rampant, exemplified by the $2 billion hidden debt scandal that cost the country $11 billion. Poverty remains high, with 74.7% of the population living in extreme hardship.
Without immediate intervention, the current crisis could escalate into an even more violent conflict. The government’s repressive tactics may push desperate citizens toward armed resistance. Mondlane’s calls for peaceful change may not resonate forever if people lose hope in democratic solutions.
A Call for Urgent Action
SADC must take decisive steps to restore stability. It should pressure the Mozambican government to hold a transparent dialogue with the opposition. Independent investigations into electoral fraud and political killings must be conducted.
Furthermore, SADC must enforce its democratic protocols. It cannot afford to keep shielding autocratic regimes. A failure to act now will not only condemn Mozambique but also undermine regional stability.
On January 15, Chapo assumed office and swiftly removed police chief Bernadino Rafael, accused of orchestrating post-election violence. While this may be an attempt to regain public trust, it does not erase months of bloodshed.
Mozambicans will not forget the injustices they have suffered. SADC must not forget either. The regional body must act now to prevent Mozambique from descending into complete disorder.
