The presidential election in Brazil is going into a second round. Neither the incumbent president, Lula, nor his challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, were able to secure an absolute majority in the first round.
The Brazilian presidential election will be decided in a runoff between the leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With 97 percent of the votes counted, preliminary results from the electoral commission showed Lula with approximately 44.6 percent and his right-wing rival with 47.4 percent – both falling short of the absolute majority required for a first-round victory.
The runoff on October 25 will determine whether the 80-year-old Lula will serve a fourth term or whether the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro will take over the government. Around 159 million Brazilians were eligible to vote.
Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT) stands for a continuation of the policies he has pursued since 2023, focusing on social programs, public investment, and a stronger role for the state. Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), on the other hand, promises a leaner state, spending cuts, and a tougher stance against crime. The election campaign is characterized by strong polarization.
Lula previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2011. His record during his current term is mixed: unemployment fell, the minimum wage was raised, and deforestation in the Amazon rainforest decreased. At the same time, rising living costs, high government spending and debt, as well as corruption scandals, are burdening the government.
Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to prison
Four years ago, Lula and Jair Bolsonaro faced off; Bolsonaro was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for his involvement in an attempted coup. Now, his son wants to continue his father’s political legacy. One of his central campaign promises is an amnesty for his father.
Other members of the Bolsonaro family have already achieved electoral success: Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro was elected to the Senate in the Federal District of Brasília. Carlos Bolsonaro, another son of the former president, also won a Senate seat – in the southern state of Santa Catarina.
Security as a central campaign issue
Crime is among the biggest concerns for many Brazilians. Drug gangs like the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho (CV) control territory in parts of the country and are involved in drug trafficking and other illegal activities. Violence against women also remains a major problem.
Flávio Bolsonaro is pursuing a particularly hard line. During his election campaign, he announced plans for around half a million additional prison spaces and high-security prisons modeled on those in El Salvador. He also intends to intensify his fight against criminal organizations. Lula, on the other hand, is focusing more on combating the financial structures of organized crime.
Trump and sovereignty
Foreign policy was also part of the election campaign. US President Donald Trump had politically supported Jair Bolsonaro and criticized the criminal prosecution of the former head of state. During the campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro moved closer to Trump’s political camp and even met with him at the White House in Washington. Lula, on the other hand, is focusing more on defending Brazilian sovereignty and is trying to stabilize relations with the US despite conflicts with Washington.
Since Trump’s return to the White House, the political landscape of Latin America has changed. In countries like Bolivia, Chile, and Colombia, right-wing candidates recently won presidential elections. At the same time, following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the US government is working more closely with Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, particularly in the oil sector.
As Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country, Brazil is a key political player in the region. A Lula victory would preserve the country as a political counterweight to the region’s rightward shift. Under Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazil would align itself more closely with Washington and conservative governments in the region, which would also significantly expand Trump’s influence in Latin America.
Dispute over justice and corruption
The election campaign was also dominated by the dispute over the Supreme Court (STF). At the heart of the matter was the case of Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master bank, against whom the Federal Police are investigating billions of dollars in financial crimes and corruption allegations.
Messages from Vorcaro to STF Judge Alexandre de Moraes became public, as did a contract worth approximately 131 million reais between the bank and the law firm of Moraes’ wife. Moraes, who played a central role in the proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro, denies allegations of wrongdoing. The case led to clashes among several STF judges.
