- NCBA has attracted strong takeover interest from South African banks.
- Earlier talks with Standard Bank remained informal and inconclusive.
- Nedbank has now submitted a formal bid for a controlling stake.
- The offer blends cash payment with share exchange.
Kenya’s banking industry has been at the centre of intense debate in recent months following growing interest in NCBA Group PLC. What started as quiet talks with one foreign lender has now developed into a clear takeover proposal from another, pointing to rising appetite for Kenyan financial institutions by major African banks.
The developments signal a possible shift in the region’s banking structure, with consolidation now moving from speculation to action.
Towards the end of 2025, reports emerged suggesting that Standard Bank Group, Africa’s largest lender by assets, was exploring a possible merger with NCBA through its Kenyan unit, Stanbic Holdings.
Sources indicated that internal approvals had been secured to begin talks, with analysts noting that such a deal could have created Kenya’s third-largest bank by assets, controlling a combined balance sheet of about KSh1.1 trillion.
Market reaction was swift. NCBA’s share price jumped to record levels as investors priced in the potential deal. However, both banks avoided public comment, and Stanbic later downplayed the reports, calling them market speculation. The talks eventually failed to produce a firm offer.
In January 2026, the story took a decisive turn. Nedbank Group Limited formally submitted a tender offer to acquire roughly 66 per cent of NCBA’s shares.
Under the proposal, NCBA is valued at about 1.4 times its book value. Shareholders willing to participate would receive part of the payment in cash, while the larger portion would be settled through newly issued Nedbank shares listed in Johannesburg.
If approved, NCBA would operate as a majority-owned Nedbank subsidiary, while the remaining shares would continue trading on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Nedbank’s bid reflects a broader push by South African lenders to expand beyond their traditional markets. By partnering with NCBA, Nedbank gains access to an established East African network with operations across several countries.
The structure of the offer also preserves NCBA’s local identity. Management, branding, and the Kenyan stock market listing would remain in place, a move seen as key to maintaining customer trust and regulatory goodwill.
The shift from informal discussions to a formal takeover bid highlights Kenya’s rising status as a financial hub. Strong institutions, expanding digital banking, and regional trade links continue to attract foreign investors looking for long-term growth.
Large banks are increasingly seeking scale to compete across borders, and acquisitions are becoming the fastest route to achieve this goal.
Unlike the earlier Standard Bank talks, Nedbank’s proposal now moves into the approval phase. Regulators in both Kenya and South Africa must review the transaction before it can proceed. If cleared, the deal could take between six and nine months to complete.
For shareholders and the wider market, the offer provides a clear choice backed by firm terms. Should it go through, the takeover would rank among the most significant cross-border banking deals in East Africa and could trigger further consolidation across the sector.
