New Poll Predicts MCP Landslide Victory in September Elections
A new pre-election poll by the Malawi-based International Institute for Research and Development in Africa (IIRD Africa) projects that the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), led by President Lazarus Chakwera, will win the upcoming September 2025 elections with 56.5 percent of the vote, translating to approximately 4.07 million votes.
This makes MCP the only party expected to cross the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright first-round victory.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by former President Peter Mutharika, is projected to come second with 27.2 percent support, or about 1.96 million votes, mainly concentrated in the Southern Region.
The United Transformation Movement (UTM), under Dalitso Kabambe, is expected to secure 6.6 percent, or roughly 480,000 votes, drawing particular support from youth and urban voters.
Other parties, including UDF, PP, OZAM, PDP, and independents, collectively account for around 8 percent of the vote, though their support is scattered.
The poll, conducted between August 11 and September 3, 2025, sampled 5,002 respondents—44.9% from the Central Region, 42.7% from the South, and 12.4% from the North.
Analysts say MCP’s strong performance in the Central and Northern regions compensates for its weaker support in the South, giving it a significant national lead.
The survey also highlighted top voter concerns, with 49 percent citing the economy and rising prices as their main issue, followed by food security (28.5%), youth employment (8.5%), and corruption (7.3%).
The survey was presented by Dr. Kennedy Luwegha and Professor Dyson Kajani, both directors at IIRD Africa.
