Kenya Issues Heavy Rainfall Alert: The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall alert effective from March 9, 3 PM, to March 11, 9 PM. This forecast aligns with predictions of extreme weather patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa, raising concerns over potential flooding and agricultural disruptions.
Experts warn that the region will experience an increase in rainfall intensity due to ongoing climate changes, necessitating immediate emergency preparedness.
Why the Coming Rains Will Be So Extreme
Scientists have linked the increased intensity of rainfall to climate variability and rising greenhouse gas emissions. A new study conducted by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) indicates a surge in extreme weather events, including excessive precipitation and prolonged heatwaves.
Findings from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) corroborate these concerns, highlighting that surplus rainfall will likely impact Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Impact of Extreme Rainfall on Agriculture and Livelihoods
Heavy rainfall poses a significant risk to agriculture and livestock production in the region. According to experts at the 66th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Kampala, Uganda, excess rainfall could lead to crop failures, soil erosion, and displacement of communities.
Key agricultural risks include:
- Increased flooding that damages crops
- Soil degradation leading to reduced fertility
- Displacement of farmers and livestock losses
- Disruptions in food supply chains
Authorities urge farmers to adopt climate-smart agriculture practices and prepare for possible disruptions in food production.
Understanding the Science Behind the Rainfall Surge
Dr. Teferi Demissie, the lead author of the ILRI study titled Current and Projected Changes in Climate Extremes and Agro-Climatic Zones Over East Africa, explains that the frequency of short-duration heavy rainfall events is on the rise.
The study utilized seven global climate models to assess extreme weather patterns, showing a correlation between increased greenhouse gas emissions and more severe precipitation events.
Major Climate Factors Influencing Heavy Rainfall
- Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – A belt of converging trade winds near the equator that influences precipitation patterns.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – A climate driver impacting oceanic temperatures and monsoon seasons.
- El Niño and La Niña Phenomena – Global climate events causing shifts in atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution.
Regional Weather Variability in East Africa
East Africa exhibits a diverse climate, ranging from arid zones in Ethiopia’s Rift Valley to wet highlands in Uganda and Kenya. The region experiences two major rainy seasons:
- Long Rains (March-May) – The primary rainy season responsible for significant agricultural output.
- Short Rains (October-December) – A secondary rainy season contributing to water reserves.
Dr. Hussen Endris, a climate modeling expert at ICPAC, emphasizes that northern parts of the region will experience warmer-than-average temperatures, while central Kenya and parts of Ethiopia may witness delayed rainfall onset.
Historical Impact of Extreme Rainfall in East Africa
The United Nations reports that between September and December 2023, El Niño-induced rains caused severe flooding across East Africa, affecting over 5.2 million people. Countries including Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan experienced loss of lives, displacement, and infrastructural damage.
Extreme rainfall events, such as those forecasted for March 2025, are expected to create similar challenges, warranting urgent disaster preparedness.
Kenya’s Preparedness for Heavy Rainfall
The Kenya Meteorological Department urges the government and communities to take proactive measures to mitigate risks associated with the impending heavy rains. These include:
- Early Warning Systems – Strengthening weather monitoring and real-time alerts.
- Flood Control Measures – Constructing drainage systems and reinforcing embankments.
- Disaster Relief Planning – Ensuring adequate emergency response teams and resources.
- Public Awareness Campaigns – Educating citizens on flood safety and evacuation protocols.
