The main concerns in this general election, which is the sixth since the dawn of democracy in 1994, are displayed in the following charts.
Since it successfully led the opposition against the apartheid legal system and the government of white minority, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics.
It has ruled the nation since capturing the first democratic elections in 1994.
However, since reaching a peak of 70% in 2004 for general elections, its percentage of the vote has been continuously declining.
According to surveys, it can go below 50% for the first time, putting the party in a coalition of some kind.
In the last thirty years, South Africans have generally become wealthier. The number of individuals living in poverty has decreased, and most people now have access to improved housing and healthcare.
However, average salaries have been trending downward since 2011, which has made many people feel less fortunate and given rise to claims that the governing party has mismanaged the economy.
However, recent events like the worldwide price surge and the coronavirus pandemic have severely impacted South Africa.
According to a metric called the Gini coefficient, which examines the percentage of income that various household groups get, South Africa is the world’s most unequal nation.
For example, almost 70% of income is held by the richest 20% of the population. In comparison, just 7% of South Africa’s revenue is owned by the lowest 40% of its citizens.
Nearly a third of South Africans looking for work are currently unemployed, having hardly recovered from its peak during the epidemic.
The rate of economic growth has not kept up with the number of people joining the labor force.
Youth unemployment pie chart is overshadowed by South Africans’ frantic job quest
Young people have been particularly heavily struck by unemployment. Among those aged 15 to 34, over 44% do not have a job, are not in school, or are not in training.
South Africa, like many other African nations, has a young population; of its 62 million citizens, the majority are under 35.
A UN report from the previous year referred to the unemployment rate as a “ticking time bomb,” implying that it may eventually lead to political unrest.
While the number of attacks has decreased slightly over the past ten years, the rates of robbery, rape, and murder have hardly altered, according to the figures.
During the final three months of 2023, there was one homicide in South Africa on average every 20 minutes. Over 130 people were raped every day over the same timeframe.
The amount of violence has been compared by President Cyril Ramaphosa to a war being waged against women, but his party has come under fire for how it has handled the issue.
The scheduled disruptions, sometimes referred to as load-shedding, have harmed economic expansion and upset people’s lives.
The mismanagement, corruption, aging infrastructure, and poor maintenance have all been held accountable for the breakdowns at the state-owned power firm Eskom.
Even with its economic challenges, the nation continues to be a key attraction for visitors from the surrounding areas and the continent.
Even though they only make up a small percentage of the population, some foreigners have been held responsible for the high rates of crime and accused of stealing employment from natives. Numerous individuals have been the targets of waves of xenophobic violence.
Human Rights Watch said earlier this month that during the election campaign, foreign nationals had been demonized and exploited as scapegoats, putting future xenophobic violence at risk.
What is at risk for the ANC in the 2024 South African election?
In late May, there will be a general election in South Africa, and according to certain surveys, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) may receive less than 50% of the vote for the first time in thirty years.
The party that spearheaded the campaign against apartheid under the late Nelson Mandela has been under increasing pressure, which has weakened its position and increased the likelihood of a coalition government.
When is the election in South Africa?
On 29 May, nearly 28 million South African registered voters have the chance to elect representatives to the national and provincial parliaments.
It will be the seventh democratic general election in the nation.
They have taken place every five years since 1994, when white-minority rule ended and the ANC came to power.
What is at stake for the ANC and what are its policies?
The ANC, now led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, is under growing pressure.
Stubbornly high unemployment, which hit 32% last year, persistent economic inequalities, corruption allegations and frequent power cuts have reduced its popularity.
High levels of violent crime – on average 130 rapes and 80 murders a day in the last three months of 2023 – have also dented confidence in the authorities.
But the ANC says it is working to fix these problems.
And it is urging people not to throw away gains made since the end of apartheid. The party says poverty levels have fallen, a greater proportion of South Africans live in decent homes and access to healthcare has improved.
The ANC has promised to create millions more jobs over the next five years, to boost investment, support the private sector and end corruption.
Desperate search for jobs overshadows vote
What are the DA and EFF opposition parties offering?
The main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) says the “country is in crisis”.
It wants to liberalise the economy, including a move towards greater privatisation.
It has pledged to create two million new jobs, end power cuts and “halve the rate of violent crime”.
The DA says it can save South Africa
To address unemployment and inequality, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – the third largest party in parliament – has radical economic solutions.
The party argues that the ANC has not redressed the racial economic imbalances of apartheid. It plans to redistribute land to the less well off.
The EFF also wants to nationalise mines, banks and other key parts of the economy, arguing that the wealth of the country would then be used to benefit the majority of the population.
What about Jacob Zuma and the MK party?
Disgruntled former President Jacob Zuma – who was ousted by Mr Ramaphosa amid corruption allegations that he denies, and later jailed for defying a court order – is the leader of a fresh rival to the ANC.
Ex-President Jacob Zuma has been campaigning as the leading candidate for the MK party,
The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which has taken its name from the ANC’s former armed wing, adds further unpredictability to the race. It could make a strong showing in Mr Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
The party has seen off a court challenge by the ANC over the use of the MK name.
In a separate case, the country’s highest court has barred the ex-president from running for parliament. The Constitutional Court ruled that his 15-month prison sentence disqualified him. However, his image will still appear on the ballot paper.
In its manifesto, the MK party says the country took a wrong economic turn by pursuing market-led policies and that society is “adrift from its core values”.
Instead they elect the 400 members of the National Assembly, who go on to vote for a new head of state within 30 days of the general election.
The EFF says that greater state control of the economy will create a fairer society
As a result, there are no presidential candidates as such, but each party leader fronts their national campaign and their portrait will appear on the ballot paper.
The leader of whichever party can muster a majority in the National Assembly after the election would be expected to become the next president.
The proportion of seats that parties are allocated in the 400-member National Assembly is directly related to their share of the vote.
In 2024, independent candidates will be included for the first time.
This means that South Africans will cast three votes:
National parliament: One for 200 of the seats with just political parties named on the ballot
National parliament: One for the remaining 200 seats with a different ballot paper for each of the nine provinces, listing the parties in that region and independent candidates
Provincial assembly: One for the independent candidates or parties in the regional legislature.
How would a coalition be formed in South Africa?
The constitution does not spell out how a coalition could be formed.
But assuming the ANC remains the largest party, smaller groupings could informally agree to support an ANC government on a vote-by-vote basis in return for some concessions.
Or, at the other end of possibilities, the ANC could enter a formal coalition with some parties, including a written agreement outlining legislative plans and the distribution of cabinet posts.
Any other party would face the same choices.
An opposition coalition has also been mooted, though analysts say this is highly unlikely.
In a pre-election deal, a group of parties – led by the DA – signed up to what has been called the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa. If together they get more than 50% of the seats, they have already agreed to form a coalition. The agreement does not include the EFF.
